A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
