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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the young progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unachievable, and in recent days laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to elect the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a family member advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could express their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd